Leonids shower at Nov
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blackhicks
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:13 am
Leonids shower at Nov
Hi newbie here, i would like to seek your suggestion for viewing the Leonids meteor shower in Nov, it happens that my birthday falls in Nov and we plan to go for a short trip to Bali or Perth, just wondering if these location can view the shower? If not where or which country can offer the best view? Thank you very much!!
Hi Welcome,
The bad news is, the main peak of the shower is over. so for nearly 30 years, this shower will only be a trickle from anywhere.
ML
The bad news is, the main peak of the shower is over. so for nearly 30 years, this shower will only be a trickle from anywhere.
ML
Photo Album:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/14113965@N03/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/14113965@N03/
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blackhicks
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:13 am
Hi Meng Li
I am confused, I got this info from the internet, and there is other similiar info also saying this will be a good one instead, where did you got your info from?
"On Nov. 17, 2009, we expect the Leonids to produce upwards of 500 meteors per hour," said Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "That's a very strong display."
The timing: "We predict a sub-storm level outburst on Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT," Cooke said. That favors observers in Asia, although Cooke won't rule out a nice show over North America when darkness falls hours after the peak. "I hope so," he said. "It's a long way to Mongolia."
Mark November 17, 2009 on your calendars because astronomers predict that the annual Leonids might put up a light show so dramatic it wasn’t seen since 1999 and 2001. In recent years, the Leonids have put up a rather “boring” show but astronomers believe that 2009 will be different with around 500 meteors streaking across the sky every hour.
I am confused, I got this info from the internet, and there is other similiar info also saying this will be a good one instead, where did you got your info from?
"On Nov. 17, 2009, we expect the Leonids to produce upwards of 500 meteors per hour," said Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "That's a very strong display."
The timing: "We predict a sub-storm level outburst on Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT," Cooke said. That favors observers in Asia, although Cooke won't rule out a nice show over North America when darkness falls hours after the peak. "I hope so," he said. "It's a long way to Mongolia."
Mark November 17, 2009 on your calendars because astronomers predict that the annual Leonids might put up a light show so dramatic it wasn’t seen since 1999 and 2001. In recent years, the Leonids have put up a rather “boring” show but astronomers believe that 2009 will be different with around 500 meteors streaking across the sky every hour.
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starfinder
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 11:15 pm
- Location: River Valley / Tanglin Road
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Hi Blackhicks,
That is an interesting piece of news. However, do note that the annual Leonid meteor shower in November is usually a timid one, and predictions of extraordinary Leonid meteor showers for a particular year can be inaccurate. You might want to read more on the net using Google on the accuracy of past predictions.
Personally, I've had very poor luck with the Leonids. Missed the "storm" in around 1998/1999 when it was all clouded out in the Muar area where we were. Monsoon season you see.
Anyway, since you asked, I've run a check with a planetarium program. It shows that the time mentioned ("Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT") would be the day of New Moon (i.e. no moon) itself, so that is very favourable.
Further, for Singapore, which would be Wed 18 Nov 2009 at 5:34am to 5:44am, it would be still dark and a half hour away from the crack of dawn.
The radiant of the shower, in the constellation Leo, would be high up in the sky in Singapore/Johor, at about 50 degrees above the horizon.
So.... in theory, the conditions would be favourable. Of course, weather and cloud cover is something else. Again I mention: Monsoon season here. Perhaps further up north in e.g. Thailand would be better. Hmmm...
See the screen shot of that date/time for Singapore just below.
However, for Perth, the sun would already have arisen at that time (sunrise: 5.07am). It would be late spring/early summer then. See the other screen shot at the bottom. I hope I've got the times right. Perth is on the same time zone as Singapore: UTC+8.
SINGAPORE
PERTH
That is an interesting piece of news. However, do note that the annual Leonid meteor shower in November is usually a timid one, and predictions of extraordinary Leonid meteor showers for a particular year can be inaccurate. You might want to read more on the net using Google on the accuracy of past predictions.
Personally, I've had very poor luck with the Leonids. Missed the "storm" in around 1998/1999 when it was all clouded out in the Muar area where we were. Monsoon season you see.
Anyway, since you asked, I've run a check with a planetarium program. It shows that the time mentioned ("Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT") would be the day of New Moon (i.e. no moon) itself, so that is very favourable.
Further, for Singapore, which would be Wed 18 Nov 2009 at 5:34am to 5:44am, it would be still dark and a half hour away from the crack of dawn.
The radiant of the shower, in the constellation Leo, would be high up in the sky in Singapore/Johor, at about 50 degrees above the horizon.
So.... in theory, the conditions would be favourable. Of course, weather and cloud cover is something else. Again I mention: Monsoon season here. Perhaps further up north in e.g. Thailand would be better. Hmmm...
See the screen shot of that date/time for Singapore just below.
However, for Perth, the sun would already have arisen at that time (sunrise: 5.07am). It would be late spring/early summer then. See the other screen shot at the bottom. I hope I've got the times right. Perth is on the same time zone as Singapore: UTC+8.
SINGAPORE
PERTH
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blackhicks
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:13 am
Hi Starfinder
Thanks for the reply, i don't know much about astronomy since i am just a beginner, but all the info i got is either from NASA or Sky & Telescope etc which i think should be accruate, anyway we are having this short trip. so i just try my luck to thailand and hope for the best, thanks a lot!
Thanks for the reply, i don't know much about astronomy since i am just a beginner, but all the info i got is either from NASA or Sky & Telescope etc which i think should be accruate, anyway we are having this short trip. so i just try my luck to thailand and hope for the best, thanks a lot!
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starfinder
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 11:15 pm
- Location: River Valley / Tanglin Road
- Contact:
Here are some more info on predictions for the Leonids on the night of 17 Nov 09:
http://www.imo.net/calendar/2009#leo
"This increased ZHR level will probably combine with that from the 1533 trail to push ZHRs up perhaps towards 120 at some stage between 21h-22h UT on the 17th. Mikhail suggested ZHRs should peak in that hour too, with ZHRs of ~ 130-140, but Jérémie's modelling implied the chance of a possible meteor storm, with ZHR peaks around 21h44m (ZHRs ~ 950+) and 21h51m UT (~ 600) combining to give a rate perhaps in the 1000-1500 range briefly. ....
Clearly, the evening to early morning UT hours of November 17/18 are likely to be of greatest observer interest. Luckily, new Moon on November 16 ensures perfectly dark skies for covering whatever events happen (remembering that there are no guarantees in meteor work!). As the Leonid radiant rises usefully only around local midnight (or indeed afterwards south of the equator), the 21h-22h UT apparently critical interval will fall best chiefly for sites across Asia, from the extreme east of Europe eastwards to Japan and places at similar longitudes, but with the possibility of some unusual activity at almost any stage from ~ 6h-24h UT on November 17, only European and African longitudes look set to miss out."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... ds2009.htm
"On Nov. 17, 2009, Earth will pass through the 1466 stream again, but this time closer to the center. Based on the number of meteors observed in 2008, Vaubaillon can estimate the strength of the coming display: five hundred or more Leonids per hour during a few-hour peak centered on 21:43 UT.
'Our own independent model of the debris stream agrees,' says Cooke. "We predict a sub-storm level outburst on Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT."
http://www.imo.net/calendar/2009#leo
"This increased ZHR level will probably combine with that from the 1533 trail to push ZHRs up perhaps towards 120 at some stage between 21h-22h UT on the 17th. Mikhail suggested ZHRs should peak in that hour too, with ZHRs of ~ 130-140, but Jérémie's modelling implied the chance of a possible meteor storm, with ZHR peaks around 21h44m (ZHRs ~ 950+) and 21h51m UT (~ 600) combining to give a rate perhaps in the 1000-1500 range briefly. ....
Clearly, the evening to early morning UT hours of November 17/18 are likely to be of greatest observer interest. Luckily, new Moon on November 16 ensures perfectly dark skies for covering whatever events happen (remembering that there are no guarantees in meteor work!). As the Leonid radiant rises usefully only around local midnight (or indeed afterwards south of the equator), the 21h-22h UT apparently critical interval will fall best chiefly for sites across Asia, from the extreme east of Europe eastwards to Japan and places at similar longitudes, but with the possibility of some unusual activity at almost any stage from ~ 6h-24h UT on November 17, only European and African longitudes look set to miss out."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... ds2009.htm
"On Nov. 17, 2009, Earth will pass through the 1466 stream again, but this time closer to the center. Based on the number of meteors observed in 2008, Vaubaillon can estimate the strength of the coming display: five hundred or more Leonids per hour during a few-hour peak centered on 21:43 UT.
'Our own independent model of the debris stream agrees,' says Cooke. "We predict a sub-storm level outburst on Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT."
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starfinder
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 11:15 pm
- Location: River Valley / Tanglin Road
- Contact:
Here is a map showing average global cloud cover conditions in November, based on data from 1982-2001.
Taken from the website:
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~jander/clo ... louds.html
It shows that:
- Regionally, perhaps the best bet is northern Thailand and Burma.
- Globally, at areas where it is night during 2130 UTC, I think the most cloud-free areas are northern India and the southern Arabian peninsula.
Incredible India anyone?
Poor Singapore, we're so shrouded in clouds! We should be called "Cloudipura" instead. We're in the most clouded region in the world (next to western Sumatra) in Nov at 2130UTC where its then night.
(The website states that "This material is not copyrighted and can be used freely.")
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/%7Ejander/c ... vember.png[/img]
Taken from the website:
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~jander/clo ... louds.html
It shows that:
- Regionally, perhaps the best bet is northern Thailand and Burma.
- Globally, at areas where it is night during 2130 UTC, I think the most cloud-free areas are northern India and the southern Arabian peninsula.
Incredible India anyone?
Poor Singapore, we're so shrouded in clouds! We should be called "Cloudipura" instead. We're in the most clouded region in the world (next to western Sumatra) in Nov at 2130UTC where its then night.
(The website states that "This material is not copyrighted and can be used freely.")
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/%7Ejander/c ... vember.png[/img]
