Bright Comet : C/2011 L4 (Panstarrs) Mar. 2013!

[jiahao1986]

Was browsing those common comet websites and found this promising new comet, C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS, hitting maximum brightness in Mar. 2013. Current prediction shows a peak brightness to be mag. 0.5 on Mar. 11, 2013!

Interestingly the orbital characteristics resemble a past bright comet C/2004 F4 Bradfield in 2004, and the great comet C/2006 P1 McNaught in 2006/7, the latter hitting a brightness of mag. -6! Comparing the preliminary peak brightness projection of C/2011 L4 (mag.0.5) and C/2006 P1 (mag.2.0), it seems very likely that 2011 L4 is a much larger comet. If 2011 L4 ends up being as active as 2006 P1 as it gets closer to our sun (don't forget it'll be the solar max year in 2013), it may become another great comet! Below is the current brightness projection of the comet:



In terms of viewing conditions in early Mar when the comet is brightest, it'll be close to the sun, and the position will be most suitable for observers located near equator. If not bringing in weather as a factor, Singapore might be a good place to catch this one! Moon phase will be near new moon, very cooperative. Below is a simulation chart for Singapore after the dusk of Mar. 11, 2013:



After the comet passes perihelion, it'll venture through the northern sky, benifiting observers in northern latitudes. There's is going to be a fairly exciting encounter of the comet and M31 around Apr.05, 2013, again with very cooperative moon phase. Somewhere north in China such as Beijing would be a fantastic choice to catch this show. Below is a chart for Beijing after dusk of Apr. 05, 2013. Twilight would be over way before the comet sets, providing great photo opportunities!



Time to plan ahead fellows to escape the anti-astro-event weather system in SG. Same some money and leaves for upcoming exciting two years full of astro highlights! Below is a detailed empherisis for your reference:

Date Geo R.A. Geo Dec r (AU) D Elong. Mag
15 FEB 2013 21h 06m 47.8s -44°01' 31" 0.7317 1.3275 32.9 4.8
16 FEB 2013 21h 16m 12.2s -43°33' 16" 0.7098 1.3066 32.4 4.6
17 FEB 2013 21h 25m 46.2s -43°00' 26" 0.6879 1.2863 31.9 4.4
18 FEB 2013 21h 35m 28.4s -42°22' 40" 0.6659 1.2668 31.4 4.3
19 FEB 2013 21h 45m 17.0s -41°39' 39" 0.6438 1.2480 30.8 4.1
20 FEB 2013 21h 55m 10.3s -40°51' 01" 0.6217 1.2300 30.1 3.9
21 FEB 2013 22h 05m 06.1s -39°56' 28" 0.5996 1.2128 29.4 3.7
22 FEB 2013 22h 15m 02.5s -38°55' 42" 0.5775 1.1966 28.7 3.5
23 FEB 2013 22h 24m 56.9s -37°48' 25" 0.5554 1.1815 27.9 3.3
24 FEB 2013 22h 34m 47.2s -36°34' 23" 0.5334 1.1673 27.1 3.1
25 FEB 2013 22h 44m 30.8s -35°13' 22" 0.5115 1.1544 26.2 2.9
26 FEB 2013 22h 54m 05.3s -33°45' 13" 0.4898 1.1426 25.3 2.7
27 FEB 2013 23h 03m 28.2s -32°09' 46" 0.4685 1.1321 24.3 2.5
28 FEB 2013 23h 12m 36.9s -30°27' 00" 0.4475 1.1230 23.4 2.3
01 MAR 2013 23h 21m 28.8s -28°36' 52" 0.4270 1.1152 22.4 2.0
02 MAR 2013 23h 30m 01.4s -26°39' 27" 0.4072 1.1088 21.4 1.8
03 MAR 2013 23h 38m 12.0s -24°34' 54" 0.3883 1.1040 20.5 1.6
04 MAR 2013 23h 45m 57.9s -22°23' 29" 0.3705 1.1005 19.5 1.4
05 MAR 2013 23h 53m 16.5s -20°05' 34" 0.3540 1.0986 18.6 1.2
06 MAR 2013 00h 00m 05.0s -17°41' 42" 0.3392 1.0980 17.8 1.0
07 MAR 2013 00h 06m 20.7s -15°12' 36" 0.3264 1.0989 17.0 0.8
08 MAR 2013 00h 12m 01.4s -12°39' 11" 0.3160 1.1010 16.3 0.7
09 MAR 2013 00h 17m 05.1s -10°02' 34" 0.3082 1.1042 15.8 0.6
10 MAR 2013 00h 21m 30.7s -07°24' 05" 0.3034 1.1084 15.4 0.5
11 MAR 2013 00h 25m 18.2s -04°45' 10" 0.3019 1.1135 15.1 0.5
12 MAR 2013 00h 28m 28.6s -02°07' 16" 0.3035 1.1192 15.1 0.6
13 MAR 2013 00h 31m 04.1s +00°28' 14" 0.3083 1.1254 15.1 0.7
14 MAR 2013 00h 33m 07.9s +03°00' 11" 0.3161 1.1321 15.4 0.8
15 MAR 2013 00h 34m 43.8s +05°27' 41" 0.3265 1.1391 15.8 0.9
16 MAR 2013 00h 35m 55.7s +07°50' 11" 0.3394 1.1463 16.3 1.1
17 MAR 2013 00h 36m 47.4s +10°07' 20" 0.3542 1.1536 17.0 1.3
18 MAR 2013 00h 37m 22.5s +12°19' 03" 0.3707 1.1611 17.7 1.5
19 MAR 2013 00h 37m 44.1s +14°25' 25" 0.3885 1.1688 18.5 1.7
20 MAR 2013 00h 37m 54.9s +16°26' 36" 0.4075 1.1765 19.4 2.0
21 MAR 2013 00h 37m 57.0s +18°22' 51" 0.4273 1.1843 20.3 2.2
22 MAR 2013 00h 37m 52.2s +20°14' 29" 0.4477 1.1922 21.3 2.4
23 MAR 2013 00h 37m 42.1s +22°01' 46" 0.4687 1.2002 22.3 2.6
24 MAR 2013 00h 37m 27.8s +23°45' 02" 0.4901 1.2082 23.2 2.8
25 MAR 2013 00h 37m 10.3s +25°24' 34" 0.5118 1.2162 24.2 3.0
26 MAR 2013 00h 36m 50.3s +27°00' 39" 0.5336 1.2243 25.2 3.2
27 MAR 2013 00h 36m 28.3s +28°33' 31" 0.5556 1.2324 26.2 3.4
28 MAR 2013 00h 36m 05.0s +30°03' 27" 0.5777 1.2405 27.3 3.6
29 MAR 2013 00h 35m 40.6s +31°30' 38" 0.5999 1.2487 28.3 3.8
30 MAR 2013 00h 35m 15.4s +32°55' 18" 0.6220 1.2569 29.2 3.9
31 MAR 2013 00h 34m 49.8s +34°17' 38" 0.6441 1.2650 30.2 4.1
01 APR 2013 00h 34m 23.8s +35°37' 47" 0.6662 1.2732 31.2 4.3
02 APR 2013 00h 33m 57.5s +36°55' 56" 0.6882 1.2814 32.2 4.4
03 APR 2013 00h 33m 31.2s +38°12' 14" 0.7101 1.2896 33.2 4.6
04 APR 2013 00h 33m 04.7s +39°26' 47" 0.7320 1.2978 34.1 4.7
05 APR 2013 00h 32m 38.2s +40°39' 43" 0.7537 1.3060 35.1 4.8
06 APR 2013 00h 32m 11.7s +41°51' 09" 0.7754 1.3142 36.0 5.0
07 APR 2013 00h 31m 45.0s +43°01' 12" 0.7969 1.3224 36.9 5.1
08 APR 2013 00h 31m 18.3s +44°09' 55" 0.8183 1.3306 37.9 5.3
09 APR 2013 00h 30m 51.4s +45°17' 26" 0.8396 1.3388 38.8 5.4
10 APR 2013 00h 30m 24.3s +46°23' 48" 0.8608 1.3470 39.7 5.5
11 APR 2013 00h 29m 57.0s +47°29' 06" 0.8819 1.3552 40.6 5.6
12 APR 2013 00h 29m 29.2s +48°33' 23" 0.9028 1.3634 41.4 5.7
13 APR 2013 00h 29m 01.0s +49°36' 44" 0.9236 1.3717 42.3 5.8
14 APR 2013 00h 28m 32.2s +50°39' 12" 0.9443 1.3799 43.2 6.0
15 APR 2013 00h 28m 02.6s +51°40' 49" 0.9649 1.3881 44.0 6.1

[Gary]

Nice info! Anti-astro-event weather system, i like this phrase. LOL

[starfinder]

Hi Jiahao, thanks for sharing the info!

However, I've had a look at the positions of the comet with a planetarium program and it seems that when the comet is near perihelion (around 11 March 2013), it would be too close to the Sun (only 15 degrees away) to be visible anywhere in the world.

The only possibility for visibility at perihelion is if it becomes very bright and has a very long tail like Comet C/2006 P1 McNaught did in early 2007, but I won't place too much hope on such a repeat event.

Specifically, on the date of perihelion, 11 March 2013, at 8.00pm in Singapore, when the Sun would be about 12 degrees below the horizon at nearly due West, the comet would be also be nearly due West and at only 1 degree above the horizon and setting.

It also seems that the comet would similarly be very close to the Sun in the 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after perihelion.

And it seems from the graph above that this comet is projected to have a very steep light curve. Specifically, in just 4 weeks before and 4 weeks after the date of perihelion, it seems that it would only be at around mag 6.

So, in summary, I think this comet would only be good for Singapore if it becomes very special (i.e. exceptionally bright) like Comet McNaught did, and that was a very rare occurrence.

[jiahao1986]

Nice info! Anti-astro-event weather system, i like this phrase. LOL

Actually the credit goes to weixing

[jiahao1986]

Hi Jiahao, thanks for sharing the info!

However, I've had a look at the positions of the comet with a planetarium program and it seems that when the comet is near perihelion (around 11 March 2013), it would be too close to the Sun (only 15 degrees away) to be visible anywhere in the world.

The only possibility for visibility at perihelion is if it becomes very bright and has a very long tail like Comet C/2006 P1 McNaught did in early 2007, but I won't place too much hope on such a repeat event.

Specifically, on the date of perihelion, 11 March 2013, at 8.00pm in Singapore, when the Sun would be about 12 degrees below the horizon at nearly due West, the comet would be also be nearly due West and at only 1 degree above the horizon and setting.

It also seems that the comet would similarly be very close to the Sun in the 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after perihelion.

And it seems from the graph above that this comet is projected to have a very steep light curve. Specifically, in just 4 weeks before and 4 weeks after the date of perihelion, it seems that it would only be at around mag 6.

So, in summary, I think this comet would only be good for Singapore if it becomes very special (i.e. exceptionally bright) like Comet McNaught did, and that was a very rare occurrence.

Hi Gavin,

Agreed that a repeat event like McNaught will be too rare, but for McNaught's case only observers in the southern hemisphere got the treat. Just to be fair, such event should come again for the northern hemisphere

Back to the topic, actually in recent years, comets with such orbital properties which I attempted to observe, e.g. C/2002 V1 NEAT(successful, some very good memory), C/2004 F4 Bradfield(failed) and C/2006 P1 McNaught(failed miserably in SG...) all exceeded the predicted max brightness by several folds, all reaching minus magnitude when they closest to the sun, shining so brillliantly in SOHO C3 images. Thus I would personlly put very high expectation on this new comet, and would suggest everyone to be ready to fly off to dark places should this one truly becomes a McNaught level comet!

[starfinder]

Thus I would personlly put very high expectation on this new comet, and would suggest everyone to be ready to fly off to dark places should this one truly becomes a McNaught level comet!

Ok, I shall book my office leave and air ticket!

I remember that I was tempted in early 2007 to fly off to Perth or Brisbane to see Comet McNaught. But then, by the time it became apparent that the comet was very bright, it was a bit too late to apply for office leave at the last minute. So... that was a miss. But I do know that Remus saw it at its best somewhere in Australia!

[jiahao1986]

Thus I would personlly put very high expectation on this new comet, and would suggest everyone to be ready to fly off to dark places should this one truly becomes a McNaught level comet!

Ok, I shall book my office leave and air ticket!

I remember that I was tempted in early 2007 to fly off to Perth or Brisbane to see Comet McNaught. But then, by the time it became apparent that the comet was very bright, it was a bit too late to apply for office leave at the last minute. So... that was a miss. But I do know that Remus saw it at its best somewhere in Australia!

Yeah man Remus and Carole were somewhere in Australia and saw the comet when it was at its best. Most of the others in SG weren't so lucky. I still remember painfully the cloud cover in SG was persistently 100% during those big days. We didn't even have a chance to attempt hunting the comet in daytime! The biggest comet in the past 40 years, sigh...

Fingers crossed for 2011 L4 and wish it'll put on a good show!

[Tachyon]

Jia Hao,

Cool! Let me know if you are organizing a trip to Beijing. I'll join you!

[jiahao1986]

Jia Hao,

Cool! Let me know if you are organizing a trip to Beijing. I'll join you!

No problem dude, I'll definitely head back north if this one stands the expectation!

[Airconvent]

Hopefully another Mc Naught and of course clear skies!

http://www.space.com/15108-comet-pansta ... -2013.html